May 16, 2008

Various interesting science and technology (2)

Brain/AI

Diligent music practice encourages brain growth in children
http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2008/416/1

Can practice increase IQ?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13786-simple-brain-exercise-can-boost-iq.html?DCMP=ILC-hmts&nsref=news2_head_dn13786

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/health/research/29brai.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Sensitive Artificial Listener (SAL) system will help human-computer interaction
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-04/qub-l-041608.php

Computer aided memory
http://www.wired.com/medtech/health/magazine/16-05/ff_wozniak?currentPage=all

AI Risk
http://www.singinst.org/upload/artificial-intelligence-risk.pdf

Learning is useful but it seems it can also be damaging
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/science/06dumb.html?oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

Evidence for bacteria learning
'When E. coli enters a person’s body, its environment immediately becomes warmer. Later, as the microbe moves into the person’s gut, oxygen becomes scarce. Tavazoie and his colleagues found that warm temperatures alone triggered the microbes to switch to a less efficient, low-oxygen mode. The bacteria anticipated the coming lack of oxygen and were preparing for it, the researchers reported online May 8 in Science. This proactive behavior challenges the view that microbes can only react after-the-fact to changes that occur in their environments...

 
'Bacteria obviously have no brains or nervous systems. Instead, the microbes learn through evolutionary changes in their complex networks of interacting genes and proteins. Over hundreds of generations, the “intelligence” needed to predict a coming event based on present clues becomes encoded in these networks. An individual bacterium can’t learn this way; later generations gain this embedded intelligence over evolutionary time.

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/31877/title/Smart_microbes

Will Power

'... The brain has a limited capacity for self-regulation, so exerting willpower in one area often leads to backsliding in others. The good news, however, is that practice increases willpower capacity, so that in the long run, buying less now may improve our ability to achieve future goals... The brain’s store of willpower is depleted when people control their thoughts, feelings or impulses, or when they modify their behavior in pursuit of goals. Psychologist Roy Baumeister and others have found that people who successfully accomplish one task requiring self-control are less persistent on a second, seemingly unrelated task.

‘In one pioneering study, some people were asked to eat radishes while others received freshly baked chocolate chip cookies before trying to solve an impossible puzzle. The radish-eaters abandoned the puzzle in eight minutes on average, working less than half as long as people who got cookies or those who were excused from eating radishes. Similarly, people who were asked to circle every “e” on a page of text then showed less persistence in watching a video of an unchanging table and wall.

‘Other activities that deplete willpower include resisting food or drink, suppressing emotional responses, restraining aggressive or sexual impulses, taking exams and trying to impress someone. Task persistence is also reduced when people are stressed or tired from exertion or lack of sleep.

‘What limits willpower? Some have suggested that it is blood sugar, which brain cells use as their main energy source and cannot do without for even a few minutes. Most cognitive functions are unaffected by minor blood sugar fluctuations over the course of a day, but planning and self-control are sensitive to such small changes. Exerting self-control lowers blood sugar, which reduces the capacity for further self-control. People who drink a glass of lemonade between completing one task requiring self-control and beginning a second one perform equally well on both tasks, while people who drink sugarless diet lemonade make more errors on the second task than on the first. Foods that persistently elevate blood sugar, like those containing protein or complex carbohydrates, might enhance willpower for longer periods.

‘In the short term, you should spend your limited willpower budget wisely. For example, if you do not want to drink too much at a party, then on the way to the festivities, you should not deplete your willpower by window shopping for items you cannot afford. Taking an alternative route to avoid passing the store would be a better strategy.

‘On the other hand, if you need to study for a big exam, it might be smart to let the housecleaning slide to conserve your willpower for the more important job. Similarly, it can be counterproductive to work toward multiple goals at the same time if your willpower cannot cover all the efforts that are required. Concentrating your effort on one or at most a few goals at a time increases the odds of success.

‘Focusing on success is important because willpower can grow in the long term. Like a muscle, willpower seems to become stronger with use. The idea of exercising willpower is seen in military boot camp, where recruits are trained to overcome one challenge after another.

‘In psychological studies, even something as simple as using your nondominant hand to brush your teeth for two weeks can increase willpower capacity. People who stick to an exercise program for two months report reducing their impulsive spending, junk food intake, alcohol use and smoking. They also study more, watch less television and do more housework. Other forms of willpower training, like money-management classes, work as well.

‘No one knows why willpower can grow with practice but it must reflect some biological change in the brain. Perhaps neurons in the frontal cortex, which is responsible for planning behavior, or in the anterior cingulate cortex, which is associated with cognitive control, use blood sugar more efficiently after repeated challenges. Or maybe one of the chemical messengers that neurons use to communicate with one another is produced in larger quantities after it has been used up repeatedly, thereby improving the brain’s willpower capacity.

‘Whatever the explanation, consistently doing any activity that requires self-control seems to increase willpower — and the ability to resist impulses and delay gratification is highly associated with success in life.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/opinion/02aamodt.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

Frontiers of AI

"After three decades of disappointments, artificial intelligence researchers are making progress. Recent developments made possible spam filters, Microsoft’s new ClearFlow traffic maps and the driverless robotic cars that Stanford teams have built for competitions sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency... Called the Bayesian approach, it centers on a formula for updating the probabilities of events based on repeated observations. The Bayes rule, named for the 18th-century mathematician Thomas Bayes, describes how to transform a current assumption about an event into a revised, more accurate assumption after observing further evidence... Her tools led to a new type of cancer gene map based on examining the behavior of a large number of genes that are active in a variety of tumors. From the research, scientists were able to develop a new explanation of how breast tumors spread into bone..."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/technology/03koller.html?ref=science%26pagewanted=print

The spread of medical robotics
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/04/business/04moll.html?pagewanted=print

Cognitive robots
"The CoSy ACS is indeed greater than the sum of its parts. It incorporates a range of technologies from a design for cognitive architecture, spatial cognition, human-robot interaction and situated dialogue processing, to developmental models of visual processing... The researchers have made the ACS architecture toolkit they developed available under an open source license... Instead of using just geometric data to create a map of its surroundings, the Explorer also incorporates qualitative, topographical information. Through interaction with humans it can then learn to recognise objects, spaces and their uses. For example, if it sees a coffee machine it may reason that it is in a kitchen. If it sees a sofa it may conclude it is in a living room."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080506120216.htm

DARPA plans for cyberwar - looking to build model of the internet with replicant humans fighting Info War... [NB. DARPA is the most successful tech incubator in the world.]

'Congress has ordered the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa, to put together a National Cyber Range, as part of a massive (and massively secret) $30 billion, government-wide effort better prep for battle online. The project is now considered a top priority for the Agency.  And to make sure the facility is as true-to-life as possible, Darpa wants the contractors running the Range to be able to "replicate realistic human behavior on nodes," a request for proposals, released today, reveals."'

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/05/the-pentagons-w.html

DARPA begins studies on "shape-shifting robots"...  This program is looking at meso-scale machines with 1,000 modules - a 20-fold increase in complexity over the current state of the art.  The long-term goal is nano-scale machines with millions of modules.

http://technology.newscientist.com/channel/tech/robots/mg19826531.200-shapeshifting-robots-take-form.html?feedId=robots_rss20

http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2008/05/3375884

How the brain processes emotions
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13874-how-the-brain-detects-the-emotions-of-others-.html

fMRI scans of people making moral decisions about feeding poor children
http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2008/508/1

Robot conducts orchestra
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080514/ap_en_mu/robot_conductor1st_ld_writethru
 
Myths about the ageing brain
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/health/13brain.html?_r=1&ref=health&oref=slogin
 
Research by Professor Bartlett and his QBI colleague Dr Tara Walker has identified the resident stem cell in the hippocampus and, even more importantly, has discovered how it can be activated to produce new neurons.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-05/ra-doc051408.php

Vatican astronomer talks of possibility of 'brother extraterrestrials'

"Just as there is a multiplicity of creatures on earth, there can be other beings, even intelligent, created by God. This is not in contrast with our faith because we can't put limits on God's creative freedom. Why can't we speak of a 'brother extraterrestrial'? It would still be part of creation."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/14/news/vat.php

Bostom on intelligent life
http://www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=20569

Neuro-marketing 

http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2008/04/follow_the_neur.php
http://sds.hss.cmu.edu/media/pdfs/Loewenstein/knutsonetal_NeuralPredictors.pdf
http://www.forbes.com/2007/01/05/neuroeconomics-buying-decisions-biz_cx_ee_0105papers.html
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_04/c4018008.htm Scroll down to If I only had a brain scan
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/31/business/media/31adcol.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1210694877-85yEy4rSrFS75ycLLFrRyg

Information Theory 

New study of information flow in complex networks
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/105/12/4633

Com Sys and hierarchies
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-05/sfi-npd050108.php

Finance

Charlie Munger on economics
http://vinvesting.com/docs/munger/Munger_UCSBspeech.pdf

InfoProc on the credit crunch...
'I'd like to hear a believer in efficient markets try to tell the story of Bear Stearns' demise. One week it was OK for them to be levered 30 to 1, the next week it wasn't? When the stock was at 65 people were comfortable with their exposure to mortgages, but then suddenly they weren't? Come on. When the stock was at 65, what was the implied probability of a total collapse, based on out of the money puts? Zero.

'Markets are complex dynamical systems that undergo phase transitions. Even sophisticated institutional investors are mostly just following the herd. Prices can disconnect wildly from real value for long periods of time, until suddenly they jump, often overshooting in the other direction. Huge risks, which in hindsight are obvious, build up in plain view while escaping notice from all but a few Cassandras. Robert Rubin, the Chairman of Citigroup, former co-head of Goldman, former Treasury Secretary, doesn't know what a SIV is until after the crisis has hit. Tens of trillions of dollars in off the books credit default swaps are traded (often recorded on scraps of paper!) before Wall St. CEOs, central bankers and regulators realize the instabilities involved.'

http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/03/privatizing-gains-socializing-losses.html#comments

InfoProc on maths and physics / finance / the world [politicians should ponder the consequences of so many of the highest IQ people - those studying advanced maths and physics - increasingly clustering in boutique financial companies that are necessarily secretive about the nature of the mathematical/scientific discoveries they make... If they are doing this, then they are not applying the same cutting edge stuff - including in Artificial Intelligence - to other problems humans face...]

http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/04/new-math.html#comments
http://www.alphamagazine.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=1897101

Merton [who was one of the Nobel winners working at LTCM when it blew up in 1998 after the Russian defaults...]
http://www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=20501

Choice
http://www.physorg.com/news127404469.html

InfoProc on subprime
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/04/deep-inside-subprime-crisis.html

InfoProc: Money DOES buy happiness
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/#6160143502131381247

Miscellaneous...

National Intelligence Council report: 6 disruptive technologies out to 2025
http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_confreports/disruptivetech/disruptive_tech_main.pdf

Wiki science
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=science-2-point-0

Teen crime
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/being-human/mg19826511.800-nipping-teen-crime-in-the-bud.html

Bionic eyes
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7359282.stm

This YouTube video made by IBM years ago - Powers of Ten - illustrates the scale of the universe's complexity.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBsOeLcUARw

InfoProc on elite education
'It's interesting that, in the past, elite education did not result in greater average earnings once SAT scores are controlled for (see below). But I doubt that will continue to be the case today: almost half the graduating class at Harvard now head into finance, while the top
'Oregon students don't know what a hedge fund is.'

http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/04/returns-to-elite-education.html

Thiel interview
http://reason.com/news/printer/125469.html

NASA plans to land on asteroid
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2008/may/07/starsgalaxiesandplanets.spaceexploration
 
Gladwell (author of The Tipping Point and Blink) on innovation
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/05/12/080512fa_fact_gladwell/?printable=true
Interesting comments from InfoProc blog
"... he produces an interesting profile of Myhrvold (although see here for a much better one from 1997 by Ken Auletta) and friends, but seems to entirely miss a number of important points. Intellectual Ventures is not about real inventions, but about patenting around ideas so that they have a future claim on the ones that turn out the be useful. In other words, they are patent trolls. Gladwell does not seem to realize the difference between rampant speculation and true invention: the hours of painstaking work in the lab required to convert an idea into reality.

"Here's an excerpt about how the "invention" process works -- get some smart guys in a room and let them talk (every theory group lounge is a fount of commercializable ideas ;-). Yes! if your inventors are smart enough, they can produce 36 new inventions at dinner! Is this a statement about real innovation, or about what a patent attorney might manage to get the understaffed, overburdened USPTO to approve? It makes a mockery of what real inventors and innovators do. Why start a company and hire engineers to build a prototype? Just get a few lawyers and patent everything in sight...

"… Let me close with my usual observation (specifically aimed at venture capitalists, research lab directors and university administrators) concerning an asymmetry in cognitive depth: yes, physicists can casually read the New England Journal of Medicine and come up with interesting insights, but, no, biologists and medical doctors cannot read Physical Review."

10% drop in childminders due to government EYFS regulation

Mail

Various interesting science and technology

Kurzweil op-ed in Washington Post: exponential increases in computer power will bring massive changes from solar power to molecular biology  [Kurzweil has been described as the most accurate forecaster of artificial intelligence by none other than Bill Gates...]

Since 1965, there has been a billion-fold increase in computation per dollar. There will be another billion-fold increase for the same price over the next 25 years. This steady and predictable long-term exponential trend will help solve various problems, including climate change and disease.

People mis-understand the fundamental dynamics of exponential processes.

"It's important to understand that exponentials seem slow at first. In the mid-1990s, halfway through the Human Genome Project to identify all the genes in human DNA, researchers had succeeded in collecting only 1 percent of the human genome. But the amount of genetic data was doubling every year, and that is actually right on schedule for an exponential progression. The project was slated to take 15 years, and if you double 1 percent seven more times you surpass 100 percent. In fact, the project was finished two years early. This helps explain why people underestimate what is technologically feasible over long periods of time -- they think linearly while the actual course of progress is exponential."

Eg. "Today, 70 percent of it [energy] comes from fossil fuels, a 19th-century technology. But if we could capture just one ten-thousandth of the sunlight that falls on Earth, we could meet 100 percent of the world's energy needs using this renewable and environmentally friendly source. We can't do that now because solar panels rely on old technology, making them expensive, inefficient, heavy and hard to install. But a new generation of panels based on nanotechnology ... is starting to overcome these obstacles. The tipping point at which energy from solar panels will actually be less expensive than fossil fuels is only a few years away. The power we are generating from solar is doubling every two years; at that rate, it will be able to meet all our energy needs within 20 years."

Biology / medicine will also be transformed...

"Now that we can model, simulate and reprogram biology just like we can a computer, it will be subject to the law of accelerating returns, a doubling of capability in less than a year. These technologies will be more than a thousand times more capable in a decade, more than a million times more capable in two decades. We are now adding three months every year to human life expectancy, but given the exponential growth of our ability to reprogram biology, this will soon go into high gear. According to my models, 15 years from now we'll be adding more than a year each year to our remaining life expectancy. This is not a guarantee of living forever, but it does mean that the sands of time will start pouring in rather than only pouring out."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/11/AR2008041103326_pf.html

Computing

Exascale computing
http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/02/exascale_computing

Microsoft moves toward cloud computing
NYT

NASA super-computer
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9084238

"Darwin chip"...
New Scientist

** One of the world's leading quantum information theorists, Seth Lloyd of MIT, writes on recent developments with quantum computers: attempts to demonstrate a 16-bit Schrodinger's Cat may prove that a powerful form of quantum computation is possible...

Tech Review 

Quantum internet search
Physorg

Computer game will help protein design
http://www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=20738

[It is fascinating that (i) the work of Gödel and Turing in the 1920s-1930s on the fundamental foundations of mathematics and logic (which was one of the greatest philosophical developments in human history and which produced as a side-effect Turing’s computers) and (ii) the quantum revolution in physics have become entangled in the subject of quantum informatics / quantum information theory.  As we pointed out a few weeks ago, DARPA is now making this (along with brain-computer interfaces) one of their top priorities, showing how what was sci-fi just years ago is becoming practical engineering.

For those interested in these things, these may be of interest…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godel
http://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/philosophy/works/at/godel.htm (Fascinating unpublished essay by Godel on the philosophical implications of his Incompleteness Theory.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turing
http://research.physics.uiuc.edu/DeMarco/1982%20feynmann%20paper.pdf One of the original papers on quantum computers by Richard Feynman who won the Nobel for his work on Quantum Electrodynamics.  Feynman also wrote a fascinating – and funny – piece on his experience with the school science curriculum, showing that the corruption of the curriculum in the West has been going on apace since at least the early 1960’s…

http://research.physics.uiuc.edu/DeMarco/1982%20feynmann%20paper.pdf
http://www.textbookleague.org/103feyn.htm 

Genetics

New stem cell tech breakthrough
BBC

Gene therapy helps recover sight: a virus is used to transfer proper copies of a gene to the eye to replace faulty copies

BBC

The $100 genome [from years and $3 billion for the Human Genome Project to $60,000 and 6 weeks now to $100 dollars and a day... Cf. Kurzweil on exponential trends above...]

Tech Review

Google invests in DNA sequencing...
Business Week

Genetically engineered embryo
"The Cornell scientists put a gene for a fluorescent protein into the single-celled human embryo. The embryo had three sets of chromosomes instead of two. After the embryo divided for three days, all the cells in the embryo glowed, Dr. Rosenwaks said. He said the goal of the work was to see if the fluorescent marker would carry into the daughter cells, allowing genetic changes to be traced as cells divided."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/science/13embryo.html

Nano

New nano products hitting the market at 3-4 per week
Nano

Progress with medical "nano-worms"
http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/newsrel/science/05-08Nanoworms.asp

More shortly...

Failure to help dyslexic children costs economy £1.8 billion a year

Independent

Gove: We need to extend, not block, educational opportunity

Telegraph

Exam watchdog: Pupils should not expect accurate marking

Telegraph

Times

Mail

May 15, 2008

Meltdown of SATs

Guardian

BBC

Cameron and Gove: Role for Lord Adonis in a future Conservative government

Independent

Times

Conservatives will back Heads who enforce smart staff dresscode

Sun

Times

May 14, 2008

Concern for vulnerable children missing from care

Guardian